Listening to President Obama’s weekly address on Saturday was a rollercoaster experience for me. At times, I was lifted by his message of fiscal discipline. At other times, I was depressed by his unwillingness to connect fiscal discipline with politically difficult choices.
It started out well with the President’s observation that “the cost of confronting our economic crisis is high. But we cannot settle for a future of rising deficits and debt that our children cannot pay.”
Then came the first downward plunge when the President proclaimed, “we have identified two trillion dollars in deficit reductions over the next decade.”
This statistic is based on savings achieved from a contrived “baseline.” If you assume that war spending remains at the current level adjusted for inflation over the next 10 years, you can get a lot of “deficit reduction” by reducing that commitment -- as even the Bush Administration was planning to do. And, if you assume that all of the Bush tax cuts are permanent, which they are not, you can get more “deficit reduction” by assuming that a portion of them will not be extended, which is what would happen anyway under current law. So there isn’t really a lot of deficit reduction in the $2 trillion figure the President cited, and no hard choices....