October 26, 2014

The (Tab)ulation

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Friday, December 6, 2013 - 3:19 PM

Extending emergency unemployment compensation for another year would add 200,000 jobs but carries a price tag of $25 billion, according to an analysis released recently by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Such an extension now appears to be a central focus of negotiators trying to reach a budget deal before Congress adjourns for the year.

Emergency unemployment compensation (EUC) provides more “bang for the buck” than many other policies aimed at improving the economy. It provides an immediate surge in economic activity due to recipients quickly spending their benefits on consumer goods and services, which boosts aggregate demand and induces businesses to increase production and hire more workers.

CBO noted that part of this positive effect is offset as some workers reduce the intensity of their job searches in response to the extension of benefits.

Emergency unemployment compensation was approved in 2008 as the unemployment rate was rapidly rising due to the recession. It provides at least 14 additional weeks of benefits to individuals who have exhausted...

Wednesday, December 4, 2013 - 8:28 AM

If the recent past is any indication of how elected officials will deal with the country’s short- and long-term fiscal challenges, Americans – and especially younger ones – are in trouble.

Washington will have to step up its game.  And ordinary Americans can help by encouraging their elected representatives to forgo political  theatrics in favor of timely budgets and more responsible policies.

That was the consensus of budget experts as well as former lawmakers who spoke at a conference Tuesday on Capitol Hill. The conference was organized by the University of New Hampshire’s Warren B. Rudman Center for Justice, Leadership and Public Policy in cooperation with The Concord Coalition and several other organizations.

With congressional negotiations on an overdue budget for Fiscal 2014 still sputtering, speakers at Tuesday’s conference considered what it would take to avoid a federal debt crisis.

They generally agreed that lawmakers in both parties as well as the President should put a greater focus on developing realistic solutions and exercising bipartisan cooperation.

“We have got to get our colleagues to lift themselves out of this political quagmire -- and forget, just for...

Tuesday, November 26, 2013 - 10:57 AM

A recent report by the President’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) reviewing the recent slowdown in health care costs examined its potential causes, its sustainability and the economic impact going forward.

While the report is intended to put the administration's efforts on health care reform in the best light, that shouldn’t diminish the importance of the slowdown and the lessons we can learn from it. When looking at future fiscal policy decisions, some crucial takeaways are:

  • Changes in government policy can, at the very least, contribute to lowering health care cost growth.
  • Unlike five or six years ago, health care experts are now fairly confident they have identified some strategies to build upon and there is an emerging political consensus for encouraging their implementation.
  • The slowdown presents a unique opportunity to expand reform efforts, and is not a moment for complacency or resting on laurels.

The CEA report highlights the cost slowdown by examining how per-capita spending from 2010 to 2012 saw the lowest growth rate for a three-year...

Saturday, November 23, 2013 - 9:36 AM

Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), a member of the budget conference committee, on Tuesday released a proposal that replaces roughly half of the sequestration scheduled through 2021 with savings from mandatory spending and revenue from ending corporate tax expenditures.

The plan calls for $455 billion in mandated cuts to be replaced by $200 billion in revenue from closing corporate tax loopholes, and $255 billion in savings from entitlement reforms. The plan also calls for smoothing out the sequester cuts, slowing their growth in earlier years and increasing them in later years to achieve the same amount of deficit reduction.

King, who named his proposal the “Grande” plan after Starbuck’s middle-sized cup, represents the “middle-of-the-road” approach to fiscal policy that has been sorely lacking in Washington over the last few years.

To attract support from both parties, King also calls for lower corporate tax rates and increased infrastructure spending. These would be paid for by $325 billion in revenue from ending certain corporate tax expenditures, which are subsidies built into the tax code....

Monday, November 18, 2013 - 1:16 PM

In recent interviews and speeches, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel says the military is “challenging every past assumption, every past formula” for allocating budget resources as he tries to reorganize the military for 21st century challenges in the face of a rapidly tightening budget.

Hagel appears to be on the right path in encouraging top Pentagon officials to take a fresh look at everything in setting defense priorities. But uncertainties about sequestration and the Fiscal 2014 budget in general are complicating that work.

In January a new round of sequester cuts is scheduled to reduce the military’s budget cap by $21 billion. The Pentagon faces nearly $1 trillion in overall spending cuts over the next decade due to the budget caps and sequestration put in place by the Budget Control Act. In FY 2012, the defense budget was $670 billion.

Pentagon Comptroller Robert Hale says he implemented $37 billion in cuts required by the sequester earlier this year in part by delaying sending army units...

Monday, October 28, 2013 - 9:38 AM

Who says that Democrats and Republicans can't reach a grand bargain?

Harry Reid and Paul Ryan seem to have it figured out. If Democrats and Republicans don’t demand compromises from each other, everyone can get along. It’s the perfect political grand bargain: Do nothing.

Unfortunately, that could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The prospects for a real grand bargain – one that actually makes some headway on solving our fiscal imbalance – are not looking good right now. It is particularly disappointing, however, that already two key members of Congress are simply accepting the gridlocked status quo rather using their leading positions to figure out a better result.

In an interview with the Associated Press (AP), Ryan summed up his view this way: “If we focus on some big, grand bargain then we’re going to focus on our differences and both sides are going to require that the other side compromises some core principle and then we’ll get nothing done.”

That’s a bit like saying elected officials can’t do a grand bargain because it would require a grand...

Sunday, October 13, 2013 - 1:10 PM

We will soon see whether there is any remaining capacity in the U.S. political system to reach compromise across partisan lines for the common good.

Republican congressional leaders say that if President Obama wants the government to reopen and the debt limit to be increased he will have to make concessions on spending and agree to negotiate a long-term deficit reduction deal. Obama says he will not negotiate anything until the debt limit is raised and the government reopened. After that, he’ll talk.

If neither side blinks, the government will remain shut and nation could begin defaulting on a portion of its obligations within a matter of days..

That disastrous outcome must be avoided. But how?

Backing down now would be politically perilous for either side. Failing to back down, however, would be perilous for the economy, the nation’s creditworthiness and the trust that citizens place in elected leaders to carry out the most basic functions of government.

Surely, both sides know that ultimately two things have to happen.

1.) The debt limit must be increased. There is no realistic alternative and any set of fiscal options, even Paul Ryan’s austere House Budget Committee plan, would require additional borrowing.

2.) There must be a meaningful negotiation over fiscal policy in...

Saturday, October 12, 2013 - 9:48 AM

Reflecting the sour public mood towards Washington, a panel of experts on the federal budget described themselves Thursday night as worried, puzzled, frustrated and disappointed as the fiscal stalemate dragged on.

They faulted top political leaders and other elected officials in both parties for irresponsibility, inflexibility and, in some cases, a lack of common sense.

It all led former senator Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) to recall a comment by Will Rogers on congressional philosophy: “If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t stupidity get us out?”

Concord Coalition Executive Director Robert L. Bixby offered this suggestion for members of Congress who have failed to level with the public on the nation’s fiscal challenges: “If you are trying the strategy of pandering, pandering, pandering, and you are at 5 percent in the polls, why not try something else – coming together and legislating?”

The panel discussion took place at The Concord Coalition’s annual Economic Patriots Dinner in Washington.

Also on the panel were former Federal Reserve vice chair Dr. Alice Rivlin, former senator Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), and former senator Bill Brock III (R-Tenn.). Washington Post reporter Lori...

Monday, October 7, 2013 - 4:13 PM

Lawmakers struggling with the Fiscal 2014 budget will face an even tougher challenge funding the government in future years as interest payments rise to record levels, squeezing other parts of the budget and making it more difficult to quell rising deficits.

Although slow economic growth and Federal Reserve monetary policies have kept interest rates at record lows in recent years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects rates to rise steadily in the coming years, making interest payments the fastest growing part of the federal budget.

For Fiscal 2013, CBO estimates interest payments totaling $223 billion, or 1.3 percent of GDP. By 2023, interest payments are expected to climb to $823 billion, which is 3.1 percent of GDP -- a percentage that has only been exceeded once in the past 50 years. By 2038 the figure would increase to 4.9 percent.

Rising interest payments would make a larger share of revenue unavailable for spending on federal programs; to prevent the deficit from growing larger, rising interest payments would either crowd out spending on federal programs or cause taxes to go up.

Assuming Washington eventually navigates its immediate budget and debt limit difficulties, interest rates are expected to rise in the next few years due to an improving economy. Yet, if interest rates are even...

Monday, September 9, 2013 - 9:48 AM

Syria is not the only challenge Congress faces as it returns to Washington from its August recess. Monday was the first of only nine legislative days that both the Senate and House of Representatives will be in session before the fiscal year ends on Sept. 30. Congress will need to approve a spending plan before then and take action on the debt limit not long after that.

Unfortunately, little progress has been made towards passing a budget this year. The budget resolutions adopted by Senate Democrats and House Republicans are $91 billion apart in overall spending levels, and no appropriations bills have been signed into law.

House Republicans have only been able to muster support for their deep proposed spending reductions in five of twelve appropriation bills, while the only appropriations bill brought to the Senate floor was defeated by a filibuster.

With so little time left on the legislative calendar, Congress is extremely unlikely to finish its appropriations bills on time. That would leave lawmakers with an important choice: adopt a continuing resolution to temporarily fund the government or allow it to shut down.

If that wasn’t bad enough, the government could default within weeks unless Congress raises the debt ceiling. The Treasury warns that it will run out of "...