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Introduction Since the last major Social Security reforms enacted in 1983, every annual Trustees’ report has projected benefits would exceed payroll taxes (plus income taxes on benefits) by 2021 or earlier, and the combined retirement and disability trust funds…


On March 28, President Biden released his budget proposal for the upcoming 2023 fiscal year. Though it has little chance of being enacted in its entirety, the plan will shape the contours of the final spending and revenue policies…


Introduction After nearly four decades of a consistently downward trend, the consumer price index (CPI) in 2021 increased at the fastest rate since 1982, marking a clear reversal of the previous trend.[1] Although various economic disruptions related to the…


Part 3: Elderly and Disabled Introduction President Biden’s FY 2022 budget proposes to spend nearly $1.7 trillion over the next ten years on several new or expanded entitlement programs for children, college students, the elderly, and the disabled.  The budget…


Introduction The impact of the Social Security program on the Federal budget has been the subject of much controversy and confusion. Indeed, disagreement between the Social Security and Medicare actuaries resulted in a lengthy addition to the “Statement of…

The Defense Budget: a Primer (Part 2)

Introduction In part one of this defense primer, readers learned that the defense budget is a significant portion of the federal budget (about 15% in 2019), approximately 96% of which is Department of Defense spending (the Pentagon’s…

The Defense Budget: A Primer (Part 1)

Most Americans know that the defense budget constitutes a substantial portion of federal spending, but there remains plenty of confusion as to just how much. While a quick search can answer that for you (spoiler alert: $714 billion in…


Introduction As debate in Washington continues over how (or whether) to pay for the latest infrastructure plan, someone will inevitably claim it will pay for itself. (1) Such optimism reflects the belief that government spending creates jobs and grows…


As 2021 begins, America is beset by a host of urgent challenges. At home, the nation remains deeply divided in the wake of a bitterly contested election...


Overview: Doubling the debt Every year the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues a long-term budget outlook covering the next 30 years, assuming no changes in current law. This year’s report was released on September 21 and covered the years 2020…

Understanding the CBO Baseline

Key Takeaways Several times each year, the Congressional Budget Office publishes a baseline – a policy-neutral snapshot of the federal budget meant to inform lawmakers about future trends, such as the sustained imbalance between revenues and spending. Often, the…

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